Just when you thought our exceptionally quiet hurricane season was going to be swept under the rug for the year....an area of low pressure has developed northeast of Costa Rica in the southwestern Carribean at 10.5 N 82.6 W is showing high probability of becoming our 9th tropical development of at least Tropical Depression status.

    Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras and Nicaragua will get heavy rain over the next 3-4 days, as the system strengthens and does not move very much at all. A reconnaissance plane will be sent into the storm later on today to investigate the dynamics of this storm. If it becomes stronger than TD strength (it would be TD#9) it could be named TS Ida.

   The storm is currently 1,340 miles south southeast of Apalachicola, Fl in other words, an extremely long way away and showing no impact to our forecast. What is interesting about this storm is how late in the season it has developed. By calander standards, we have approximately four weeks of what's deemed "hurricane season" left, and the climatological frequency of storm development in November is very little http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml#ori .

   Here is a look at the potential track of this sytem http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=97 but keep in mind it will be very slow to move, and will likely have a very difficult time making it anywhere close enough to impact the gulf weather.

   Another area of low pressure in the southern gulf of mexico shows poor likelyhood of organizing, but its outer cloud plumes, and eventually movement will return some moisture to the gulf coast next week. Water temperatures are in the 60's along the gulf coast, so any chance for either systems to develop is pretty slim. Pensacola, FL and Dauphin Island, AL water temps are around 66 according to the US NODC Coastal Water Temperature guide.